- Market Imbalance Hits Record High
As of April 2025, there were an estimated 1.9 million active home sellers compared to 1.5 million buyers, marking a 33.7% seller surplus, the largest imbalance since at least 2013. This equates to roughly 490,000 more sellers than buyers.
- Drivers Behind the Surge in Listings
High prices & mortgage rates continue to deter buyers, with 30-year mortgage rates around 6–7%.
Easing of the mortgage rate lock-in effect is prompting more homeowners to list—even those with favorable positions—due to life changes like job relocations or divorce.
- Economic Consequences
Buyer’s Market Emerges: With more inventory than demand, homebuyers now have negotiating power.
Price Softening Expected: Redfin projects a 1% decline in home prices by the end of 2025, reflecting reduced pricing power for sellers.
Stale Listings Rising: About 44% of homes remained unsold for 60+ days—the highest April record since 2020.
- Regional Dynamics
Region/City Seller vs Buyer Gap Market Status
Miami ~3 to 1 favoring sellers Extremely buyer-friendly
Phoenix Significant seller surplus Marked shift toward buyers
Indianapolis ~21% more sellers Emerging buyer’s market
Southeast / Sun Belt High seller surplus Buyers gaining traction
- Summary Table
Metric Value/Insight
Seller Surplus ≈ 490,000 more sellers than buyers
Seller Advantage +33.7% imbalance—highest on record
Price Forecast Projected -1% decline by year-end
Inventory Staleness 44% listed for 60+ days
Buyer vs Seller Power Shift Buyers now hold leverage in many markets
- Final Notes
This significant imbalance—500,000 more sellers than buyers—is reshaping the U.S. housing market. While buyers are gaining leverage, systemic issues like high rates and elevated home prices continue to limit broad recovery. Regional patterns vary, but the overall trend signals a cautious shift toward buyer-friendly conditions.