- Key Metrics on Demand & Inventory
In January 2025, pending U.S. home sales hit their lowest point on record—aside from the early pandemic era—dropping 4.2% from December and 6.3% year-over-year. This marked the most pronounced monthly decline since August 2023.
At the same time, active listings surged, reaching the highest levels since early 2020. Inventory rose 0.3% month-over-month and 12.9% year-over-year. New listings also climbed to their highest volume since July 2022, increasing 1.9% from December and 4.7% year-over-year.
- Underlying Market Dynamics
Mortgage Rate Lock-In Easing: Homeowners who previously locked in low rates during the pandemic are now listing, often out of necessity or lifestyle changes, despite rates being much higher.
Slower Sales Pace: The average time-on-market increased—homes sold in January spent 56 days listed, seven days more than a year prior and the longest for any January since 2020.
Demand Weakens Amid Rising Costs: The combination of increasing mortgage rates and high home prices is discouraging potential buyers from entering the market.
- Wider Market Context – Supporting Trends
Price Growth Slows, Demand Weakens: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index showed annual home price growth down to 2.1%, with a monthly dip of 0.3% in June, underscoring weak demand.
Low New Home Sales: In July 2025, new single-family home sales dropped 8.2% year-over-year, with mortgage rates hovering near 6.58%, further stifling affordability.
Persistent Selling Challenges: High mortgage rates (e.g., 6.62%) and economic uncertainty continued to deter buyers during critical buying seasons, leading to market stagnation and falling seller confidence.
First-Time Buyers at Historic Lows: First-time homebuyer numbers hit multi-decade lows, with many driven to the rental market by high costs and limited inventory—highlighting the broader shift in demand.
- Summary Table
Category Insight
Pending Home Sales January 2025 recorded the sharpest drop in years—lowest demand since early 2020
Active Inventory Listings surged to pandemic-era highs
Days on Market Homes took longer to sell—longest January since 2020
Price Growth Slowed substantially; some metros even saw declines
First-Time Buyer Activity Dropped to historic lows—many priced out or staying renters
Market Sentiment Sellers and builders becoming more cautious amid affordability challenges
- Takeaway
Early 2025 marked a turning point in the U.S. housing market. Affordability pressures—driven by steep mortgage rates and home prices—have pushed demand to 5-year lows, even as inventory climbs. The result is a growing imbalance: more homes for sale, fewer buyers willing or able to step up.